“Superpeso” is the best-performing currency in the world: Investors fear betting against it
The Mexican peso could continue to strengthen, although the electoral context could ‘surprise’ according to the results, say specialists. Investors are driving the world’s most expensive currency to ever dizzying heights, ignoring the risks of interest rate cuts, divisive elections, and warnings from analysts.
The Mexican peso is the top-performing major currency in the world this year and the highest-ranked on a list of real effective exchange rates a measure of a nation’s competitiveness compiled by Bloomberg. According to Deutsche Bank, this exchange rate is at the highest level Mexico has seen at least since 2005.
The rally has been so relentless that now investors are afraid to bet against the currency, despite its high valuation. In fact, data from options markets show that traders anticipate a strengthening of the currency over the next three months to be more likely than a decline.
“In the past, we’ve tried to go against that strength and it simply hasn’t worked,” said Nicolas Jaquier, portfolio manager at NinetyOne UK Limited in London, who is betting in favor of the currency. “It seems expensive in several models, but I think we should approach them with caution.”
The keys to the peso’s strength have been its low volatility and the country’s record-low interest rates, making it attractive to borrow in another currency and lend in pesos, or the so-called carry trade.
The Covid-19 pandemic significantly disrupted global supply chains and prompted a reevaluation of manufacturing strategies worldwide. With the suspension of productive activities and border closures, companies faced unprecedented challenges in maintaining their supply chains, leading to a widespread reassessment of risk management and efficiency strategies.
This upheaval, compounded by geopolitical tensions such as those between the United States and China, alongside events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, intensified the need for companies to diversify their production bases and mitigate geopolitical risks.
Amidst these challenges, Mexico emerged as an attractive destination for nearshoring, capitalizing on its proximity to the United States, stable business environment, and existing infrastructure. As a result, companies began relocating their production facilities to Mexican states like Jalisco, Nuevo León, Coahuila, and Mexico City, which have proven particularly adept at attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) due to their favorable business environments and strategic locations.
Forecasts for Mexico’s economy paint an optimistic picture, anticipating increased investment inflows and robust domestic consumption. Fitch Ratings and JP Morgan have revised their growth projections upward for Mexico, citing the impact of nearshoring as a significant contributing factor. JP Morgan, in particular, expects FDI inflows to Mexico to rise to between 35 and 40 billion USD in 2024, with further potential growth driven by the legal framework provided by the USMCA.
If these projections materialize and Mexico succeeds in attracting the targeted FDI, it could lead to a significant stabilization and acceleration of economic growth, potentially reaching between 3 and 3.5% annually. This underscores the pivotal role that nearshoring and strategic investment play in shaping Mexico’s economic trajectory in the coming years.
“Superpeso” The Strongest Currency
“Superpeso” is the best-performing currency in the world: Investors fear betting against it
The Mexican peso could continue to strengthen, although the electoral context could ‘surprise’ according to the results, say specialists.
Investors are driving the world’s most expensive currency to ever dizzying heights, ignoring the risks of interest rate cuts, divisive elections, and warnings from analysts.
The Mexican peso is the top-performing major currency in the world this year and the highest-ranked on a list of real effective exchange rates — a measure of a nation’s competitiveness — compiled by Bloomberg. According to Deutsche Bank, this exchange rate is at the highest level Mexico has seen at least since 2005.
The rally has been so relentless that now investors are afraid to bet against the currency, despite its high valuation. In fact, data from options markets show that traders anticipate a strengthening of the currency over the next three months to be more likely than a decline.
“In the past, we’ve tried to go against that strength and it simply hasn’t worked,” said Nicolas Jaquier, portfolio manager at NinetyOne UK Limited in London, who is betting in favor of the currency. “It seems expensive in several models, but I think we should approach them with caution.”
The keys to the peso’s strength have been its low volatility and the country’s record-low interest rates, making it attractive to borrow in another currency and lend in pesos, or the so-called carry trade.
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Mexican Increase In Trade
As US supply chains decouple from China, Mexico’s manufacturing sector is emerging as a winner.
Manufacturing in Mexico is attractive for companies that experienced pandemic-era supply chain snarls or want to decrease reliance on trade between the US and China amid geopolitical uncertainty.
That’s called nearshoring, which is when companies bring production facilities closer to home markets.
As nearshoring continues and global supply chains are reorganized, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has an opportunity for long-term success, according to Alberto Ramos, head of Latin American economics research at Goldman Sachs, who spoke with CNN.
Ramos said Mexico and China have been competing for the US manufacturing market for years, but amid a shifting US-China relationship, Mexico looks poised to pull ahead.
Mexico surpassed China as the top exporter to the US in 2023. Those exports were driven by manufacturing, which comprises 40% of Mexico’s economy, according to Morgan Stanley.
US imports from Mexico continued to increase in February, according to April 4 trade data released by the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the US were down 20% in 2023, compared to 2022.
US Trade Representative Katherine Tai told CNN’s Julia Chatterley that supply chains have made the US economy over-reliant on the Chinese economy in the past.
“The challenge for us is how do you create more resilience in your economy and in trade? Because right now, the way trade has been operating, our supply chains have been so entangled and they have created so much concentration in the Chinese economy, that we all feel extremely vulnerable because the supply chains are fragile,” Tai said.
Amid shifting geopolitics and competition, US and Chinese companies both see potential in Mexican manufacturing: Low labor costs, geographic proximity to American markets and the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement — a free trade accord established in 2020 that makes trade in North America more cost-effective and efficient — are all factors contributing to a potential boom.
Industrial Development in Mexico
The landscape of Mexican industrial growth is continuously evolving, and it’s no wonder so many businesses are choosing to manufacture in Mexico today. With its strategic location, vast labor force, and favorable trade agreements, the country has become a beacon of opportunity for manufacturing and industrial ventures—and it’s growing more prominent all the time. Here, we delve into the latest trends that are shaping the Mexican industrial sector, and we share our forecasts for Mexico’s increasing potential as a powerhouse in the global manufacturing arena.
Increased Adoption of Automation and Robotics
To enhance efficiency and maintain competitiveness, Mexican manufacturers are increasingly integrating automation and robotics into their operations. This trend is not only transforming the automotive industry, a traditional stronghold, but also making inroads into electronics, aerospace, and medical devices manufacturing.
Sustainability and Green Manufacturing Initiatives
There’s a growing emphasis on sustainability within the Mexican manufacturing landscape. Companies are adopting green manufacturing practices to minimize their environmental impact, driven by both regulatory requirements and consumer demand for eco-friendly products.
Nearshoring as a Strategic Advantage
With global supply chain disruptions, there’s a notable trend towards nearshoring, with Mexico benefiting significantly due to its proximity to the United States. This geographical advantage is bolstering Mexico’s appeal as a manufacturing base, ensuring shorter lead times and reduced transportation costs between hubs.
Growth in High-Tech Manufacturing
Mexico is increasingly becoming a hub for high-tech manufacturing. The country is attracting investments in sectors like aerospace, electronics, and medical devices, where complex manufacturing capabilities and skilled labor are paramount.
Focus on Research and Development
Mexican manufacturers are investing more in R&D to foster innovation and enhance their product offerings. This investment is crucial for staying ahead in a competitive global market, enabling Mexican industries to produce higher-value goods.
Expansion of the Automotive and Aerospace Sectors
The automotive and aerospace industries continue to be pillars of Mexico’s manufacturing sector, with significant investments from foreign companies. These industries are evolving with new technologies, including electric vehicle (EV) production and advanced aerospace components manufacturing.
Each of these trends underscores Mexico’s approach to embracing change and positioning itself as a leader in the global manufacturing arena. The Mexican government’s ongoing commitment to innovation and infrastructure improvements, coupled with strategic geographical positioning and a skilled workforce, suggests a promising future for Mexico’s industrial growth.
